Boulder County Real Estate Trends for August 2015

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With the first half of 2015 in the books, the Boulder County real estate market remains strong but some slowing has b-ecome evident. Home sales have been slightly ahead of last year, with 157 more sales throughout Boulder County thr-ough July 2015 than there were through July 2014.

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On the surface everything seems to be continuing on in a gangbuster fashion. For example, even with less people are listing homes, but there are still A LOT of buyers out there! In June we saw 482 homes enter the market in Boulder county, in July we saw 452 enter the market, and then in August we saw only 326 homes enter the market. That is a decrease of 28% in one month! We expect new listings to continue to decrease into the winter.

If we look at the amount of currently active and available listings, we see that there are only 601 properties on the market. When compared to this time last year, the current number of active properties was 810. When we compare the newly listed properties, at 326 listings, to the number that are currently active and available, at 601, we see see that most properties go under contract incredibly fast! Most will be under contract within the month.

We have seen a tremendous shortage of single family homes this year. Across the County of Boulder the Months Supply of inventory is at 2.4 months. Last year at this time it was at 3.4 months. In several cities the months supply is even less. In Lafayette the Month’s Supply is at 1.0 month, and Louisville is at 1.3 months! As we have mentioned before, a balanced market should be at around 5 months of supply.

That said, there is still a difference in the temperature of the  market today compared to the market this summer. The difference between the market today and the market in the spring is that we may have seen 5-10 offers on a very attractive home, now we may just be seeing 1-3 offers.

So a slowing, but most homes are still going under contract quite quickly. If you look at the Available Supply chart, our supply levels have not risen at all yet.

Microsoft Word - 2015-09 - September.docx

As we slow, the hyper‐As we slow, the hyper local aspect of our market or what people have termed “patchiness” has returned. We saw this happening in the summer of 2014 where some areas sold quickly and other sections of the market were more slow to sell. So not all price points and areas across the county are seeing strong activity. In the less strong areas, if a house doesn’t generate an offer the first week on the market it could sit for a month or more.

One chart where you can see the slowdown is the % of Homes Under Contract Chart.

Microsoft Word - 2015-09 - September.docx

I like this metric as it reacts more quickly to changes in the market than the home sales metric, which are slower to react because we are looking back at the market 30/60 days. The % Under Contract tells you quickly how active the buyers are in the individual areas and can help us forecast where home sales are headed in the next 30/60 daya.

In our chart, you can see that ever area in the county has hit their peak for the year and are now trending down. Is that the expected annual effect? Maybe it is a reaction to the extreme inventory decrease?

Per our previous remarks, in the chart you can see that Lafayette remains the brightest spot. Many brokers believe that when the under contract metric is over 35% appreciation in value can be expected.

The FED has recently made an important decision to keep the key interest rates where they are, which is at an all time low.

Microsoft Word - 2015-09 - September.docx[/ms-protect-content]

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